Mining truck demand growth is limited by the continued global economic downturn.
In 2019, the mining truck market rebounded briefly due to the full recovery of the global mining industry and the impact of global mining M&A and restructuring activities.
In 2020, the mining truck market faced more severe challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic led to corporate shutdowns and production stoppages, and the global economic downturn bottomed out at an accelerated pace.
In 2021, thanks to the global common anti-epidemic awareness reached and the orderly resumption of production, the global economy warmed up to bring the mining truck market once again a brief boom. The cyclical movements of the mining truck industry are inextricably linked to the level of economic development.
According to the International Monetary Fund forecast, during 2022-2027, the global economy will continue to maintain the basic trend of slow downward unchanged; and GIR predicts that global mining truck sales will continue to maintain a small growth during this period. The expected downward trend of the global economy may pull down the upper limit of the incremental demand of the mining truck market.
Mining recovery prospects are uncertain, and demand for mining trucks in niche industries is expected to rebound.
The decline in the price of bulk mineral products, superimposed on the global epidemic caused by the enterprise shutdown, industry chain, making the global mining industry full of uncertainty and instability, of the full recovery.
In the sub-sector, the global production of fuel minerals in 2020 declined to varying degrees, but the production of iron ore and non-ferrous metals has maintained a consistent growth trend. Meanwhile, the domestic iron ore, coal, and cement industries show varying degrees of production increases.
With the world coal mining volume and domestic iron ore mining volume rising sharply in 2021, the coal and iron ore industry may become the main battlefield for global mining truck demand growth.
Mining recovery prospects are uncertain, and demand for mining trucks in niche industries is expected to rebound.
The decline in the price of bulk mineral products, superimposed on the global epidemic caused by the enterprise shutdown, industry chain, making the global mining industry full of uncertainty and instability, of the full recovery.
In the sub-sector, the global production of fuel minerals in 2020 declined to varying degrees, but the production of iron ore and non-ferrous metals has maintained a consistent growth trend. Meanwhile, the domestic iron ore, coal, and cement industries show varying degrees of production increases.
With the world coal mining volume and domestic iron ore mining volume rising sharply in 2021, the coal and iron ore industry may become the main battlefield for global mining truck demand growth.
Mining truck demand growth is weak, the Chinese market may become a new engine of growth
Thanks to the slow recovery of the global economy, the global sales of mining trucks increased slightly compared with the previous year.
According to GIR research, global mining truck sales will be 15,401 units in 2021. With the demand for mining trucks in mining segments picking up, global mining truck sales are expected to grow slightly to 21,281 units by 2028.
Among them, China may become a new engine to drive the growth of global mining truck demand.
In terms of sales revenue, the global mining truck revenue will be about USD 5,009 million in 2021, and China’s market revenue will be USD 806 million, accounting for 16% of the global mining truck revenue share.
Although the market revenue share of North America and Europe is 38% and 21% respectively during the same period, the average annual compound growth rate of the two is much lower than that of China’s 4.37%, which is 1.88% and 1.28% respectively.
According to the relevant experts predict that in 2030, China’s share of the total global GDP will be comparable to the United States and the European Union, of which 5% of the GDP will be directly from the mining industry, the huge scale of the mineral market or will boost China to become a new engine to pull the growth of global demand for mining vehicles.
Driverless competition pattern is beginning to show, hundreds of billions of blue ocean market opening
The fourth industrial revolution has accelerated the transformation of mining ecology to “intelligent manufacturing, intelligent products, intelligent mines”, and the research and development and marketing of unmanned mining vehicles have ushered in a huge opportunity.
Data show that in 2017-2021, the unmanned market size with a compound annual growth rate of more than 28%, from 68.1 billion yuan to 235.8 billion yuan, successfully opening a blue ocean market of hundreds of billions of dollars.
At the same time, the mining driverless market also shows great potential.
Ai Rui Consulting expects that in 2025, the size of the mining unmanned driver market will reach 8 billion yuan in volume; China Research Puhua’s prediction is relatively conservative, and it is expected that in 2026, the size of the mining unmanned driver market will break through the 4 billion yuan mark.
According to incomplete statistics, the actual market size of unmanned driving in mining areas is much lower than expected, and the actual market size of unmanned driving in mining areas in 2021 only reached 355 million yuan. However, during 2018-2021, the CAGR index of the actual driverless mining truck market size reached 55.96%, much higher than the CAGR value expected by Avery Consulting.
Unlike the traditional mining truck market “5+7+N” competition pattern, the unmanned mining field has a high entry threshold, which to a certain extent contributes to the “three-legged” pattern of the unmanned mining truck market.
In the overseas market, Komatsu and Caterpillar, as the OEM manufacturers of mining trucks, have always been in the position of unmanned driver in the mining area, dominating the AHS market in Australia and North America.
In the domestic mining market, the domestic mining market is injected by various smart driving technology companies with huge investment, plowing the unmanned mining truck track, the development so far, the market pattern has been initially formed.
